Valencia Containerised Freight Index

VCFI General

VCFI COMMENTARY MARCH 2026

In March 2026, the Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) recorded a month-on-month increase of 16.22%, reaching 2,268.59 points, marking a significant shift from the trend towards moderation observed in previous months. This result represents a cumulative growth of 126.86% since the series commenced in 2018.

In terms of geographical areas, the Western Mediterranean saw a monthly increase of 21.1%, to 3,999.80 points, bringing cumulative growth to 299.98% since 2018. Meanwhile, the Far East recorded a monthly increase of 32.60%, reaching 2,246.94 points, with cumulative growth of 124.69% since the start of the series.

The trend in freights in March reflects the interplay between structural market factors and broader environmental factors, both market-specific and geopolitical. Following the downturn seen in recent months, against a backdrop of weaker demand and overcapacity, freight rates have rebounded significantly, driven by rising costs, largely due to geopolitical tensions on strategic shipping routes.

From a structural perspective, the market remains characterised by sustained growth in fleet capacity, which has, at various times, outpaced the growth in global throughput. This mismatch between supply and demand, against a backdrop of more moderate and volatile growth in demand, coupled with greater rigidity of supply, reinforces the trend towards overcapacity and maintains underlying downward pressure on freight rates.

In addition, during March, a combination of market-specific factors and geopolitical factors have influenced short-term performance.

In the operational sphere, it should be noted that the disruptions observed are partly due to the reconfiguration of transport networks following the Chinese New Year. In the wake of the customary slowdown in services linked to the Chinese New Year, logistics chains are gradually, and to varying degrees, returning to normal, causing disruptions to delivery schedules and reducing the effective capacity available.

However, the key factor in March was undoubtedly the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which has caused significant disruptions to international shipping, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the main strategic chokepoints for global trade. Traffic restrictions, the rerouting of ships and increased operational risks have contributed significantly to putting pressure on the market in the short term.

These tensions have also had a direct impact on energy markets, triggering a sharp rise in oil prices to over $100 a barrel against a backdrop of high volatility. This rise has been passed on to marine fuel costs (bunkering), which have seen very significant increases in the main benchmarks, with increases of over 100% in products like IFO380, MGO and VLSFO between late January and March, according to data from Ship&Bunker, placing further upward pressure on freight rates.

Furthermore, as a result of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the related rerouting of routes, although levels of commercially inactive capacity remain low—at around 0.7% of the global fleet according to the latest data published by Alphaliner—a significant proportion of capacity is currently unavailable for operation.

Against this backdrop, the shipping sector continues to show signs of deterioration in the short term. In February 2026, schedule reliability stood at around 59%, the lowest level since April 2025, with average delays of approximately 5.5 days. These inefficiencies, linked to route diversions, port congestion and operational disruptions, contribute to the absorption of additional capacity, placing pressure on system costs. Overall, the trends observed in March show that while structural factors continue to point towards an environment of oversupply, market dynamics, together with geopolitical factors, are dominating in the short term, driving up freight rates and increasing market volatility.

VCFI Western Mediterranean

VCFI Far East