Valencia Containerised Freight Index

VCFI General

In February 2025, the Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) recorded a fall of -2.94% in respect of the previous month, to stand at 2,163 points. Despite the monthly reduction, the index maintains impressive accumulated growth of 116.30% since 2018. Turning to the regional sub-indexes, the Western Mediterranean was down -10.75%, with the index standing at 2,606.18. This represents cumulative growth of 160.62% since 2018. The Far East sub-index also saw a fall of -3.43%, with a value of 2,291.36 points and accumulated growth of 129.14% since the start of the series.

This has occurred in global context of uncertainty, marked by the recent election of Donald Trump and changing international policies. The geopolitical situation is constantly evolving, making it difficult to predict the future direction. Protectionist policies, either those already in effect or being discussed, have impacted the shipping sector, altering trade flows and exerting pressure on routes. Particularly in the wake of the US elections, we increased importation of materials in anticipation of potential tariff increases, potentially leading to rising freight rates and greater congestion at US ports. However, there is no doubt that this is already causing collateral damage, such as saturation of storage capacity and redistribution of cargo to other routes, which is affecting several global markets.

Despite these factors, freight rates have shown a downward trend in the first months of 2025, probably due to seasonal effects. During Lunar New Year in China and other Asian countries, production and shipment of goods decreases due to the holidays, as many factories and companies close or reduce their operations. This leads to a drop in freight demand and, consequently, in shipping rates. This slowdown in trade activity may be one of the reasons behind the drop in freight rates in January and February 2025. However, these rates tend to adjust in the low season and may increase once normal business is resumed after the holiday period.

In this regard, the RWI/ISL container traffic index has risen to 133.1 seasonally adjusted points, recovering the decline observed in previous months, although container traffic has stagnated since last summer. In the Eurozone, Northern European traffic, especially in Germany, has shown a remarkable increase, while traffic at Chinese ports has slightly decreased.

In terms of supply, February saw the container ship idle fleet remain stable, at less than 1% of total fleet. By 24 February, there were 67 inactive vessels, with a slight increase in idle capacity by 35,479 TEUs, mainly due to shipping lines’ vessels. However, non-operational owners reactivated some of their capacity, helping mitigate the increase. With only 0.7% of the 31 million TEU global fleet idle, the industry continues to operate at full capacity. What’s more, dry-docking capacity has increased slightly, with 177 vessels under repair at the end of the month.

As for the energy and commodities markets, the price of Brent crude oil fell 4.83% in February to $75.44 per barrel down from $79.27 in January. In the marine fuel sector, a downward trend was also observed, for the price of VLSFO (Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil) at the top 20 world ports, falling 3.96%, from $613.60 in January to $589.30 in February. All told, although the sector faces challenges relating to political volatility, seasonality and geopolitical changes, it continues to show a long-term growth trend. As trade activity recovers and trade policy adjustments stabilise, freight rates could be expected to stabilise or even increase in the near future.

VCFI Western Mediterranean

VCFI Far East