Valencia Containerised Freight Index

VCFI General

The Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) closed 2024 with a decrease of 4.13% in December compared to November, standing at 1,955.36 points. This result represents a cumulative growth of 95.54% since the series started in 2018. Regarding the Western Mediterranean sub-index, there has been a decrease of 26.03%, with the index standing at 1,663.62 points. This represents cumulative growth of 66.36% since 2018. The Far East sub-index saw a 6.05% decline, standing at 2,178.23 points, with a cumulative growth of 117.82% since the commencement of the series.

In terms of international trade demand, 2024 closed with a positive balance, marked by an annual growth of 3.3% in global trade. This progress was primarily driven by trade in services, which recorded an increase of 7%, while trade in goods grew by 2%. Both sectors demonstrated a recovery in the third quarter, a trend that has persisted through the year end.

The dynamism of international trade has been led by developed economies, which have experienced a 3% increase in imports and a 2% increase in exports during the last quarter. Of note is the growth of Japan‘s exports of goods (5%) and services (13%), as well as the positive performance of the United States and the European Union in services. In contrast, developing economies faced greater challenges, with quarterly imports falling by 1% and exports growing by a marginal 1%.

Looking ahead to next year, there are important uncertainties to consider. There are several factors that could potentially impact the stability of global trade, including ongoing trade tensions, possible changes in US tariff policies and geopolitical challenges. These risks have the potential to exert a considerable influence on supply chains and international trade relations, particularly in regions that are more susceptible to fluctuations in trade policies.

In terms of global shipping supply, the container sector closed 2024 showing sustained levels of activity, with the commercially idle fleet remaining at historic lows. At the beginning of December, this represented only 0.5% of overall capacity, indicating that the sector is still operating at almost full capacity. Furthermore, vessels in shipyards accounted for 2.2% of total capacity, which is below the levels recorded in the same period of 2023 (2.7%) and 2022 (3.3%), reflecting a gradual decrease in the number of units out of service for repairs or maintenance.

When considering capacity supply, it is important to acknowledge the dynamism of exports from Asia to North America. This is driven by various factors, including early bookings of goods ahead of the Chinese New Year, concerns regarding potential tariffs under the new Trump administration, and the threat of port strikes on the US East and Gulf coasts. Furthermore, the anticipated restructuring of the major shipping alliances next year may result in a temporary adjustment to capacity supply while vessels are being integrated into their new network configurations.

According to data from the consultancy Alphaliner, as of 31 December 2024, the total capacity of the world container fleet stands at 31,432,819 TEUs. In addition, orders already placed for new units will add an additional 7,414,423 TEUs, bringing total capacity to 38,847,242 TEUs as the new vessels are delivered and enter service over the coming months. While this growth in capacity will represent an increase of 23.5%, it is important to note that the number of new vessels will not experience double-digit growth. However, an 8.5% increase in the total number of units is expected, with the addition of 618 new vessels, bringing the overall containership fleet to a total of 7,806 units in service.

In the energy and commodities market, the average price of Brent crude oil experienced a slight negative variation in December, standing at 74.35 dollars per barrel, compared to 73.76 dollars in November, representing a decrease of 0.79%. The marine fuel market also demonstrated a decline, with the cost of bunkering in the top 20 global ports, as reported by Ship&Bunker, showing a slight negative variation of 1.07% in the price of VLSFO (Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil), from 583.7 dollars in November to 577.50 dollars in December.

According to Linerlytica, the overall port congestion rate increased slightly to 2.65 million TEUs in mid-December, representing 8.5% of the total fleet. The most significant improvements were observed in Chinese ports, particularly in Shanghai and Ningbo, where waiting times reached up to two days. In Europe, ports such as Hamburg, Rotterdam, Antwerp and London Gateway experienced high levels of yard occupancy, causing delays of up to four days. In Canada, Vancouver and Prince Rupert are still experiencing significant delays of up to six days due to ongoing work stoppages. In the United States, West Coast ports such as Los Angeles and Long Beach continue to operate with minimal congestion; however, East Coast ports including New York and Savannah have been experiencing delays of up to three days.

VCFI Western Mediterranean

VCFI Far East