Valencia Containerised Freight Index

VCFI General

In October 2025, the Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) fell by 3.28% to 2,108.76 points. With this monthly adjustment, the index accumulates an increase of 110.88% since the series began in 2018. By area, performance was uneven: the Western Mediterranean fell by 3.48% to 2,580.26 points, maintaining a cumulative growth of 158.03%; while the Far East rebounded strongly by 13.84% to 2,088.77 points, with a cumulative increase of 108.88%.

This performance is part of an international environment still characterised by volatility in container shipping. According to consultancy firm Drewry, the World Container Index (WCI) experienced a gradual recovery throughout October, from around USD 1,669 per 40-foot container at the beginning of the month to close last week at approximately USD 1,822, reflecting adjustments in supply and demand for capacity. At the same time, the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) closed October at 1,550.70 points, confirming that Asian routes showed some recovery from the lows of previous months.

On a broader level and according to the recent update by international reference bodies, the world economic situation continues to be marked by an environment of moderate and heterogeneous growth in international trade. According to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the volume of goods trade increased by 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 driven by strong demand for technology products and a pick-up in South-South trade among developing economies. However, the WTO expects world trade growth to moderate to 2.4% for the year as a whole, with a weaker expansion in 2026 (+0.5%) due to cooling economic activity and uncertainty stemming from US trade policies. UNCTAD also stresses that, although global trade has remained stable in terms of value, geopolitical tensions, high logistics costs and a slowdown in manufacturing trade persist, factors that limit the sustained recovery of trade in goods.

In this context, and with specific regard to shipping demand, the RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index —a leading world trade indicator based on container throughput at 90 international ports— dropped slightly in the latest September reading to 136.7 (seasonally adjusted), from 137.3 in the previous month. According to the German RWI-Leibniz institute and the ISL, this slight decline would have been moderated by the strong increase in port traffic in China, whose sub-index rose from 151.7 to 153.3 points. Without this improvement, the overall decline would have been more pronounced. In contrast, the North Range Index, which reflects activity in major northern European ports, fell back to 115.3 points, anticipating a slowdown in demand in the euro area and in intra-European trade.

On the capacity supply side, Alphaliner data show a further increase in “idle” tonnage during October. Coinciding with the Chinese Golden Week, many shipping lines and shipowners took advantage of the temporary reduction in activity to send vessels to the shipyard or for maintenance and retrofitting. As of 20 October, 183 vessels (815,000 TEU) were out of operation due to shipyard work, 30 units and 127,000 TEU more than in the previous report. If commercially idle vessels are added, the total inactive fleet reached 3.4% of the world total, the highest level since the end of 2023. This rise in “in yard” tonnage responds precisely to persistent structural overcapacity in the market as shipping lines take advantage of off-peak periods to temporarily withdraw vessels and contribute to the balance between supply and demand. Overall, VCFI evolution in October reflects a global maritime market in the process of adjustment, where the slight improvement of some international indicators coexists with a still weak global demand and oversupply. The partial recovery of freight rates on certain routes —such as the Far East— seems to be more a response to temporary capacity adjustments than to a sustained revival of trade. In the short term, the evolution of shipping will remain closely linked to the dynamics of world trade and the industry’s ability to balance available fleet with still moderate cargo volumes, in an uncertain global economic environment sensitive to geopolitical and trade changes.

VCFI Western Mediterranean

VCFI Far East