Valencia Containerised Freight Index

VCFI General

In November 2025, the Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) recorded a monthly decline of 0.49% to 2,098.40 points. This adjustment means that the index maintains a cumulative growth of 109.84% since the beginning of the series in 2018, although it confirms a general trend of moderation in its recent evolution.

By geographical area, performance was heterogeneous. The Western Mediterranean recorded a positive monthly variation of 18.53% to 3,058.46 points, bringing its cumulative growth to 205.85%. The Far East rose by 6.03% over the previous month to 2,214.71 points, with a cumulative increase of 121.47%. Despite these advances in both areas, the downward evolution of the overall index reflects that other areas integrated in the VCFI offset these increases, keeping the aggregate result in slightly negative territory.

By way of comparison with other international freight indices, in November international ocean freight rates recorded a clear downward trend, reflecting a market still marked by weak  demand and a high level of spare capacity. According to Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI), spot rates declined over the month and closed November at around USD 1,806 per 40-foot container, down from the levels reached weeks earlier, consolidating a generalised drop in several major East-West trade routes. This correction responds both to the slowdown in world trade in the final part of the year and to shipping line strategies to adjust capacity; however, these efforts have not been sufficient to sustain the freight levels of previous months, accentuating the downward pressure on shipping prices.

On the demand side, November was marked by a moderation in cargo volumes, an element that contributed to the downward behaviour of freight rates. In this context, it should be recalled that demand for container shipping is to a large extent a derivative of the evolution of international trade, especially trade in manufactured goods. As global trade shows mixed signals, container flows tend to evolve in parallel. Leading indicators such as the RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index provide useful information on the pulse of world trade. According to its latest available estimate, the overall index rebounded slightly in October to 137.2 points, partially offsetting the previous month’s decline. However, regional performance remains heterogeneous. In particular, the North Range Index, which reflects the activity of the main ports in Northern Europe and serves as a benchmark for economic developments in the Euro zone, recorded a significant decrease from 113.9 to 108.9 points. This decline prolongs the trend of lost traction in European traffic, associated with weak domestic demand, moderate levels of industrial activity and the continent’s reduced export competitiveness.

Likewise, Chinese ports —a major component of global container throughput— showed a slight downward adjustment in October (from 153.0 to 151.8 points), suggesting that, despite some stability in logistics chains, Asian export activity also failed to expand significantly in that period. Although final figures are not yet available for November, these signals point to an international trade environment evolving at moderate rates, which translates into a less dynamic demand for shipping.

In parallel, the end of the peak season —characterised by the replenishment of inventories and bringing forward purchases linked to the autumn commercial season— naturally reduced the take-up of ship space in November. This could have been compounded by still high inventories in Europe and the United States in a context of moderate consumption, which would have limited new orders and kept transport demand at contained levels.

On the supply side, structural overcapacity from significant deliveries of new vessels in recent quarters continues to influence the market. Although shipping lines have continued to resort to adjustment mechanisms —such as blank sailings, rescheduling services or the temporary withdrawal of units for yard work, maintenance or retrofitting—, these measures would not have been sufficient to offset the moderation in demand observed during November.

Alphaliner’s latest data confirms that global capacity continues to grow at a remarkable pace. The global cellular fleet surpassed 33 million TEUs in November and consists of more than 6,640 vessels, having added more than 2.3 million TEUs in the last twelve months. This increase is evidence of the structural nature of supply pressure, which continues to condition market equilibrium.

On the other hand, the evolution of the inactive fleet shows mixed performances. In mid-November, the volume of commercially inactive vessels decreased slightly to around 0.8% of the world fleet, equivalent to some 87 vessels and around 273,000 TEU, levels that are considered to be low and of limited impact as a capacity regulation tool. At the same time, the number of “in yard” vessels increased slightly to 166 units, amounting to some 858,000 TEU, although these temporary withdrawals also do not decisively alter the effective capacity available.

From a logistics perspective, November was characterised by a relatively stable international supply chain, with moderate levels of congestion and a gradual improvement in maritime service punctuality. Increased operational fluidity in ports and terminals, together with a reduction of bottlenecks at strategic nodes, contributed to a more predictable environment for transport operations. This logistical normalisation —which contrasts with the disruptions experienced in previous years— also tends to contain upward pressures on freight rates as there are no significant operational tensions driving rate increases. Overall, November was characterised by a moderated freight environment, with abundant capacity and subdued demand continuing to drive rate evolution. Although the VCFI showed differentiated behaviour by area, the general tone of the market remained in line with the downward trend observed in the main international indices. Logistics chain operational stability and the absence of relevant tensions reinforce a scenario of gradual adjustment, with limited upward pressure on freight rates in the short term.

VCFI Western Mediterranean

VCFI Far East