Valencia Containerised Freight Index

VCFI General

VCFI COMMENTARY MAY 2026

The Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) recorded a monthly increase of 12.31% in May 2026, standing at 2,846.47 points, bringing the index’s cumulative growth to 184.65% since the series began in 2018. This increase represents an acceleration compared to the previous month (+9.84%), reflecting persistent pressure in the maritime freight markets against a backdrop of high geopolitical and trade uncertainty.

By geographical region, the trend has been markedly mixed, with the Middle East clearly taking centre stage this month by recording the sharpest rise. Further behind, the Western Mediterranean (+10.04%) and the Indian subcontinent (+9.21%) also recorded significant growth. Atlantic Europe (+12.42%) and the Baltic States (+12.65%) are also showing a marked acceleration. Conversely, West Africa (-8.49%) and the US and Canada (-2.42%) are the only routes to have seen a decline this month, whilst the Eastern Mediterranean has remained virtually unchanged (+0.62%).

In economic and trade terms, May 2026 remains characterised by a slowdown in global trade. In its May 2026 report, UNCTAD forecasts that global merchandise trade growth will fall to between 1.5% and 2.5% in real terms, compared with the 4.7% registered in 2025, as a result of geopolitical uncertainty, financial market volatility and disruptions to major shipping routes.

This trend is reflected in the RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index, which, according to the latest figures available for April, fell by a further point to 141.2 points, reversing the upturn seen at the start of the year. The decline is particularly marked in Chinese ports, where the index fell from 161.0 to 158.5 points, and in northern European ports, with the Nordrange Index dropping from 120.0 to 118.5 points. Against this backdrop, on 20 May the European Union approved the tariff agreement with the United States, known as the Turnberry Agreement, which provides for the removal of tariffs on most industrial goods in both directions, thereby helping stabilise transatlantic trade relations.

With regard to shipping capacity, Alphaliner’s report of 4 May highlighted an exceptionally low level of commercial inactivity: just 81 container ships, equivalent to 243,844 TEU, were in an inactive state, representing only 0.7% of the global fleet of 33.6 MTEU. Over the course of the month, this trend became even more pronounced: in its report of 18 May, Alphaliner recorded just 59 inactive vessels, equivalent to 189,285 TEU, representing 0.6% of a global fleet of 34.1 MTEU – a level that can be considered full activity for the sector, with no structural inactivity. At least 57 further vessels must be added to these figures, with a capacity of around 280,000 TEU, which have been diverted or are currently on hold as a result of the conflict in the Gulf region, further reducing the effective supply of tonnage. When we include dry-dock capacity (164 vessels, 682,100 TEU), the total non-operational capacity accounts for 2% of the global fleet.

Against this backdrop of supply constraints, port indicators show a mixed picture for the month. Port congestion, as measured by Linerlytica, showed a gradual, slight recovery, rising from 2.68 MTEU (7.9% of the fleet) at the start of May to 2.96 MTEU (8.7%) by the end of the month. Vessel call volumes showed more volatile trends, rising from 806 vessels (2.95 MTEU) at the start of May to a peak of 1,023 vessels (3.93 MTEU) on 26 May, before easing slightly by the end of the month to around 934–966 vessels.

As for fuel costs, May saw a significant correction following the sharp rise recorded in April. According to data from Ship&Bunker, VLSFO started the month at around $925.5/mt and closed on 29 May at $843.5/mt, while IFO380 fell from $753.5 to $721.0/mt over the same period. This moderation is consistent with the performance of Brent crude, which fell by 19.26% in May, closing the month at around $91 per barrel after reaching annual highs of over $126 per barrel at the end of April. However, bunkering prices remain well above pre-conflict levels, meaning that rising fuel costs continue to put pressure on freight rates, albeit to a lesser extent than in the previous month.

In short, May 2026 saw a freights market underpinned by a very constrained effective supply and a demand which, despite the slowdown in global trade, remained stronger than expected in such an uncertain environment. Looking ahead to the coming months, the performance of the VCFI will continue to be driven primarily by developments in the conflict in the Gulf region and its impact on shipping routes, as well as by shipping companies’ ability to maintain capacity discipline against the backdrop of an earlier start to the high season.

VCFI Western Mediterranean

VCFI Far East