Valencia Containerised Freight Index

VCFI General

VCFI COMMENTARY JUNE 2026

The Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) recorded a monthly increase of 0.95% for June 2026, standing at 2,873.41 points, bringing the index’s cumulative growth to 187.34% since the series began in 2018. This increase represents something of a slowdown compared to the previous month (+12.31%), reflecting a certain degree of stabilisation in maritime freight markets following several months of sharp increases, in a context still clouded by geopolitical and trade uncertainty.
Turning to specific areas of interest, performance varied in terms of the slowdown in growth of the general index. The Western Mediterranean index fell by 8.66% in June, standing at 3,757.56 points, although it has maintained a cumulative growth of 275.76% since the start of the series. Meanwhile, the Far East recorded the sharpest fall of the month, dropping by 14.59% to 2,197.62 points, with cumulative growth of 119.76% since 2018.
On the economic and trade front, global growth forecasts remain clouded by a backdrop of slowing growth, in line with the downward revisions made by the leading international organisations. According to the WTO’s latest Goods Trade Barometer, the indicator stands at 101.7 points, slightly below January’s figure of 102.3, suggesting that growth in global trade in goods may be beginning to slow, although volumes have remained above the trend since the start of 2025. The export orders index, which is a highly predictive indicator of short-term trends, stands at 100.5, while the container shipping index stands at 102.4, remaining in expansionary territory though at a slower pace than a few months ago.
This trend is broken by the RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index which, according to the latest available data for May, rose by 0.3 points to 141.9 points (compared with 141.6 in the revised April figure), stabilising following the significant falls recorded in the previous two months. Performance varies by region: the Nordrange index, a key indicator of economic development in the north of the Eurozone, rose from 119.6 to 120.0 points, whilst the Chinese ports index fell from 158.9 to 157.6 points, in what is likely to be a correction following the sharp rise recorded at the start of the year.
According to Torsten Schmidt, Head of Economic Analysis at the RWI, this stabilisation suggests that the pressures arising from the war in Iran are easing, and that, if negotiations between the United States and Iran succeed in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open permanently, global trade could recover.
There is another significant factor affecting demand dynamics: the peak season has arrived earlier in 2026. The National Retail Federation put the start of the period in June – a month earlier than usual – forecasting a 5% increase in import volumes compared to May, which would moderate to 3% in July. This early surge is due to a combination of factors: the bringing forward of shipments ahead of the forthcoming quarterly update to the Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF), scheduled for July with increases of up to 80%, and the price rises announced by Asian manufacturers in response to their rising costs.
With regard to shipping capacity, Alphaliner’s report of 3 June highlighted an exceptionally low level of commercial inactivity: just 80 container ships, equivalent to 248,359 TEU, were in an inactive state, representing only 0.7% of the global fleet of 35.5 MTEU.
Over the course of the month, this trend became even more pronounced: in its report of 17 June, Alphaliner recorded just 74 inactive vessels, equivalent to 201,259 TEU, representing 0.6% of a global fleet of 33.5 MTEU – a level that can be considered full employment for the sector, with no structural inactivity. At least 62 further vessels must be added to these figures, with a capacity of around 298,000 TEU, which have been diverted or are currently on hold as a result of the conflict in the Gulf region, further reducing the effective supply of tonnage. When we include dry-dock capacity (220 vessels, 769,751 TEU), the total non-operational capacity accounts for 2.3% of the global fleet.
Against this backdrop of supply constraints, port indicators show a mixed picture for the month. Port congestion, as measured by Linerlytica, showed a gradual, slight decline, from 3.19 MTEU (9.4% of the fleet) at the start of June to 3.03 MTEU (8.9%) by the end of the month. Anchored vessel volumes showed more volatile trends, rising from 973 vessels (3.89 MTEU) at the start of June to a peak of 1,070 (4.5 MTEU) on 27 June, before easing slightly by the end of the month to around 1,048 vessels.
As for fuel costs, June remained on trend, recording a significant fall-off, especially after the sharp rise recorded in April. According to data from Ship&Bunker, VLSFO started the month at around 850 USD/MT and closed at 750 USD/MT on 30 June. Meanwhile, IFO380 fell from 734.5 to 547.50 USD/MT over the same period. This moderation is consistent with the performance of Brent crude, which fell by 24.09% for the month of June, closing the month at around $73 per barrel after closing the previous month at around $105 per barrel. However, bunkering prices remain well above pre-conflict levels, meaning that rising fuel costs continue to put pressure on freight rates, albeit to a lesser extent than in the previous month.

VCFI Western Mediterranean

VCFI Far East