Valencia Containerised Freight Index

VCFI General

VCFI COMMENTARY DECEMBER 2025

In December 2025, the Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) closed the year with a monthly drop of 1.04%, standing at 2,076.63 points. This adjustment means that the index maintains a cumulative growth of 107.66% since the beginning of the series in 2018, although it confirms a general trend of moderation in its recent evolution.

By geographical area, the Western Mediterranean registered a positive monthly variation of 0.60%, reaching 3,076.82 points, which raises its accumulated growth to 207.68%. The Far East fell by 9.03% over the previous month to 2,014.17 points, with a cumulative increase of 101.47%.

On the demand side, container shipping is to a large extent a direct derivative of the evolution of international trade, especially trade in manufactured goods. As global trade shows signs of moderate growth, container flows tend to evolve in parallel.

The WTO Trade in Goods Barometer points to a dynamic of contained progress in world trade, in an environment marked by weak demand in some advanced economies, persistent geopolitical tensions and a high degree of uncertainty surrounding supply chains. This scenario suggests less intense growth of transported volumes, which limits upward pressure on freight rates.

Complementarily, leading indicators such as the RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index, which measures the evolution of container throughput in the world’s major ports, provide an early reading of the real pulse of seaborne trade. The stability and moderation shown by this index in recent months reinforces the idea that demand for containerised transport is in a phase of normalisation after the exceptional peaks recorded in the years following the pandemic.

Added to this is the seasonal component of the market. The last quarter of the year usually concentrates shipments linked to end-of-year commercial campaigns, which normally sustains demand during the autumn. However, once this peak has passed, the months of December and January tend to mark a cooling phase, with volumes declining and pressure on freight rates easing. This cyclical pattern helps to explain the adjustments observed at the end of the year: after absorbing demand associated with Christmas campaigns, the market enters a phase of reduced traction, in which container flows moderate and prices tend to stabilise or correct. On the supply side, in 2025 the market was characterised by a high degree of fleet utilisation. Despite the addition of more than 2 million TEU of new capacity during the year, commercially idle fleet has remained at very low levels —around 0.8% of the world total in mid-December— putting the sector at “full employment”. Factors such as prolonged detours through Africa, increased waiting times in ports and the resilience of volumes transported have absorbed much of this new capacity, keeping the system under stress. However, continued deliveries of new ships and seasonal weakness in the first quarter open the door to a gradual pick-up in idling in 2026. An eventual massive return to Suez Canal transit would also free up a significant portion of tonnage currently tied up by diversions, increasing effective supply. This scenario introduces a structural bias towards more capacity slack in the coming months, which reinforces the trend of moderation observed in freight rates and indices such as the VCFI.

VCFI Western Mediterranean

VCFI Far East