Valencia Containerised Freight Index

VCFI General

VCFI COMMENTARY APRIL 2026

IThe Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) recorded monthly growth of 9.84% for April 2026, standing at 2,491.93 points, for accumulated growth of 149.19% since the series started in 2018. This figure marks a clear slowdown in the pace of growth compared to the sharp rise recorded in March (+16.22%), reflecting the market’s gradual adjustment to the new geopolitical environment, although uncertainty remains high.

By geographic region, performance has been markedly mixed. The Middle East recorded the sharpest monthly increase, rising 13.68% to 3,202.47 points, followed by West Africa (+8.36%, to 2,157.39 points) and the US and Canada (+5.35%, to 2,613.00 points). At the other end of the spectrum, the Western Mediterranean region posted the sharpest decline of the month, falling 6.54% to 3,738.29 points from 3,999.80 in March, followed by Europe Atlantic (-6.32%, to 2,134.02 points) and the Indian Subcontinent (-6.24%, to 3,351.11 points). The Baltic Countries and the Far East also registered declines, of 5.26% and 3.35% respectively.

The performance of the market in April has of course been decisively influenced by the crisis in the Straits of Ormuz. Over 7-8 April, the US and Iran initially agreed a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, but direct negotiations in Islamabad on 11 and 12 April broke down with no agreement reached. The fallout from this saw the US impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports from the 13th (Britannica, 2026 Iran war). On 17 April, Iran announced that it would allow commercial vessels to pass the Strait for the duration of the ceasefire in the Lebanon, but later closed the Strait again after the US refused to lift its blockade. In this context of extreme uncertainty, daily crossings of vessels have fallen more than 95% from pre-conflict levels, and the number of container ships trapped in the Persian Gulf reached a peak of 430,000 TEU, which fell to 270,000 TEU towards the end of the month, as some shipping lines managed to unload their vessels (Linerlytica, Market Pulse, week of 16 April 2026).

The operational impact of the crisis has been qualitatively different from the Red Sea crisis. According to Sea-Intelligence analysis, while that crisis impacted transit times on a global scale, the Ormuz blockade has generated a localised volume shock: carriers chose to abandon the affected networks rather than wait, leading to a collapse in traffic to the Middle East and a land congestion crisis at alternative hubs, which has in turn impacted corridors that in principal were not linked to the conflict. This dynamic explains in large part the disparate performance of the VCFI by geographic areas.

In terms of the available capacity, data from Alphaliner show that the commercially inactive fleet remained at historically low levels throughout the month. However, this figure does not reflect the real capacity lost to the market. A very significant portion of tonnage was effectively grounded due to the conflict – as a result of re-routings, forced anchoring, or the deactivation of transponders – without being counted as inactive because it was not available on the market. This additional drain on the real supply contributed to sustained pressure on rates throughout the month.

In terms of fuel costs, the bunkering market in April saw the consequences of the strong spike registered since the start of the conflict, with increases in excess of 100% in the principal references – IFO380, MGO and VLSFO – in respect of pre-war levels, according to data from Ship&Bunker. Over the course of the month, prices moderated to some extent as the market adjusted to the new environment, although they remained well above pre-conflict levels. This spike in bunkering prices, passed on to rates in the form of fuel surcharges and emergency supplements, was one of the key drivers of upward pressure on freights over the course of the month.

On the macroeconomic level, the IMF published its April World Economic Outlook under the headline “Global Economy in the Shadow of War,” reducing its global growth forecast to 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027, with inflation seeing a moderate spike before returning to a downward trajectory. The IMF also notes that the risks are clearly skewed to the downside, and that an escalation or prolongation of the conflict could significantly worsen these prospects. In this context, global cargo volumes remained relatively resilient in the first quarter, with throughput at the world’s top 20 ports growing by 4%, though with sharp divergences that reflect how the geopolitical disruption is redistributing trade flows rather than contracting them globally (Linerlytica, Market Pulse Week 17 April 2026). Looking ahead to the coming months, market developments will be determined by three main factors: the resolution – or otherwise – of the Hormuz crisis, the possible accelerated return of carriers to the Suez Canal – which could trigger renewed downward pressure on rates – and the evolution of the global trade environment, marked by growing uncertainty around international trade policies. In any case, the underlining structural factors – fleet overcapacity and moderate demand – will remain a burden on freights once the geopolitical turbulence dissipates.

VCFI Western Mediterranean

VCFI Far East