Valencia Containerised Freight Index

VCFI General

VCFI COMMENTARY FEBRUARY 2026

The Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) recorded a monthly decline of 3.35% in February 2026, standing at 1,952.03 points, which confirms a trend of moderation in the recent performance of freight rates. Despite this decline, the index has maintained cumulative growth of 95.20% since the series began in 2018.

Geographically, the Western Mediterranean registered a monthly decline of 1.69%, falling to 3,302.92 points and bringing its cumulative growth to 230.29% since 2018. In contrast, the Far East experienced a monthly drop of 13.26%, standing at 1,694.55 points, although it maintains a cumulative increase of 69.46% since 2018.

During February 2026, the international environment continued to be marked by a high degree of geopolitical uncertainty. In this context, on 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel carried out coordinated strikes against military targets in Iran, triggering a rapid escalation of tensions in the region. In response, the Iranian authorities warned of restrictions on maritime transit in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the main arteries of global energy trade. These events increased the perception of risk in international markets, especially in those sectors most sensitive to potential disruptions in energy supply and strategic shipping lanes. The performance of these tensions and their possible effects on maritime transport will be analysed in more detail in the VCFI commentary for March 2026.

In addition to the macroeconomic and geopolitical context, the trend of container shipping rates in the first weeks of 2026 has been conditioned by a number of factors specific to the shipping market.

On the one hand, the entry of new capacity into the global container ship fleet during 2025 and early 2026, stemming from the delivery of vessels ordered in previous years, continues to expand the supply of available space in the market. According to industry analyses published by Alphaliner and Drewry Maritime Research, this increase in capacity puts downward pressure on freight rates, especially on long-haul services. At the same time, shipping lines continue to actively manage capacity through operational alliances, blank sailings and adjustments in service rotations, with the aim of adapting the effective supply to the trend of demand and moderating the impact of this capacity increase on price formation in the market.

In this context, effective fleet utilisation remains high. According to the latest data published by Alphaliner, at the beginning of February 2026, the commercially idle capacity of the world container ship fleet stood at around 0.5 % of total capacity, one of the lowest levels in recent months, reflecting a high degree of fleet employment. However, the effective available capacity continues to be impacted by route diversions due to the security situation in the Red Sea. Although some shipping lines have started to reintroduce certain services through the Suez Canal, a significant proportion of high-capacity services still operate via the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transit times and absorbing additional capacity from the fleet.

These factors are compounded by operating and energy costs. While fuel prices have shown a relatively stable trend compared to the levels recorded in previous years, costs associated with insurance, operational risks and longer routes continue to influence the cost structure of shipping lines and, indirectly, the formation of freight rates. Finally, the seasonal effect of the Chinese New Year continues to influence market dynamics at the beginning of the year. After the surge in exports in the weeks leading up to the holiday, the temporary halt in production activity in China and other Southeast Asian countries reduces export activity in the weeks that follow. This situation translates into lower demand pressure on the Asia-Europe and Asia-Mediterranean routes, contributing to the rate correction observed on routes from the Far East, in line with recent developments in the main international freight indices, such as the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI).

VCFI Western Mediterranean

VCFI Far East